Reading time: 7 minutes
Hi everyone,
What a week. Welcome to Unpacked. This read will be twice the usual length but we promise you it is twice as good.
The long-awaited Electoral Boundaries Review Committee report has marked out GE battlegrounds, and left us wrapping our heads around new GRC names like Jurong East-Bukit Batok – some people are calling it Jebb (we are not) – and Marine Parade-Braddell Heights (em-pe-bah?).
We’re probably around two to three months to Polling Day. It’s go-time.
We can expect high-profile public service resignations, horse-trading among opposition parties, and campaign slogans and manifestos from those who want a head start.
The next major steps: Parliament will be dissolved and the Writ of Election issued. Polling Day is typically scheduled just about over two weeks after the writ.
Meanwhile, let’s digest what the report means. Some opposition parties have cried foul over the new boundaries, calling the changes gerrymandering.
We look at the new state of play:
Hot off the press: Punggol, Jalan Kayu
The news: It’s no surprise that boundaries changed in Pasir Ris and Punggol.
Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC has nearly 185,000 voters now. That’s over 20,000 more than it did five years ago. It was the largest spike across all constituencies, driven mainly by new BTOs in Punggol.
As a result, the new four-member Punggol GRC was created by carving out the Punggol bits and merging them with Punggol West SMC.
Nearby, a new Jalan Kayu SMC has been carved out of Ang Mo Kio GRC, which had the most voters pre- and post-EBRC changes. Three opposition parties have already laid claim to it.
The take: If you’re living in these new wards, expect fierce campaigning. Both are likely to be hotly contested, but in different ways.
In Punggol – right next to Sengkang GRC – we are all but certain that the WP will be on the ballot.
They seem to have played their cards right, and have consequently already done groundwork in the area.
If Punggol’s voters – which skew younger than the national average – find the WP as appealing as their Sengkang neighbours did in GE2020, this could be a close contest. A “political banana skin” for the PAP, as one analyst told us.
If the PAP’s MPs stay where they currently are, we would see Senior Ministers of State Janil Puthucheary and Sun Xueling on the Punggol ballot, along with first-term MP Yeo Wan Ling and one new face.
The question is – will this be enough to hold off the WP, or should we expect a full minister to move to the GRC? This is what the PAP usually does in constituencies where it is the incumbent.
It’s a different situation in Jalan Kayu SMC, the latest toy every opposition party wants to get its hands on.
The People’s Alliance for Reform, Red Dot United and People’s Power Party - all small opposition parties without a long history or much electoral success - all want to contest there.
They may be smelling blood in the water.
Jalan Kayu’s MP is a one-term backbencher – PAP’s Ng Ling Ling. It is also just a river across from opposition territory in Sengkang GRC.
SMCs are usually seen as easier fights for smaller parties, who may struggle to cover ground or field enough quality candidates in GRCs.
If the opposition parties can’t reach a consensus, Jalan Kayu may be headed for a four-corner fight.
Jalan Kayu may also be a chance at electoral redemption for labour chief Ng Chee Meng, who lost in Sengkang at the last election.
He was at an event in Jalan Kayu on Sunday, with AMK MPs Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Gan Thiam Poh.
Welcome to the wild West: West Coast-Jurong West, Jurong East-Bukit Batok
The news: Jurong GRC, where the PAP did best in 2020, has been cut into four.
This is because Hong Kah North, where Tengah is, is too big now to remain a single-seat ward. Cutting it up caused the boundaries for most of the rest of the west to change, the EBRC said.
West Coast GRC has taken in the Taman Jurong ward, President Tharman Shanmugaratnam’s old stomping ground. It is now a new West Coast-Jurong West GRC.
It also ceded estates in Dover and Telok Blangah to Tanjong Pagar GRC, and some other bits to Radin Mas SMC.
JEBB, which will have some Jurong voters, has also subsumed Bukit Batok SMC.
The remaining voters will go into a new Jurong Central SMC, as well as Holland-Bukit Timah GRC.
The take: The split of voters could shore up support for the PAP in the new GRCs, assuming voting patterns stay the same.
Jurong GRC has for years been a vote-puller for the PAP, even in 2011 when the party’s national vote share dropped. Call it the Tharman effect: In 2023, seven in 10 voters chose him to be president.
While he will not be on the line-up this year, voters are likely to associate the PAP brand with his past efforts.
Taking in his old ward and dropping Telok Blangah should shore up the PAP’s hopes in West Coast, which it nearly lost in 2020. Telok Blangah is helmed by first-term MP Rachel Ong.
The PAP will be up against the Progress Singapore Party, which wants a rematch.
It will not be a new slate of faces anymore.
PSP’s NCMPs Hazel Poa and Leong Mun Wai have gained a national profile after their term in Parliament.
But they will have to figure out how to win over some 41,000 voters, who have not seen much of them on the ground before. The party held its first walkabout in Taman Jurong on Sunday.
SDP’s Chee Soon Juan has also been denied his rematch in Bukit Batok SMC. The rest of JEBB is not ground he has often walked, and he may now face competition from Red Dot United there.
The SDP will have to iron this out behind closed doors with other interested parties.
The Eastern strategy: East Coast, Marine Parade-Braddell Heights
The news: Boundaries have changed in Marine Parade and East Coast GRCs – both hot wards in GE 2020 where the Workers’ Party improved on its 2015 showings.
Broadly, the renamed Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRC will take in some 27,000 voters from MacPherson SMC. It will give away around 40,000 Joo Chiat and Chai Chee voters to the neighbouring East Coast GRC (including one of your writers today…).
East Coast will cede about 12,000 voters living near Changi Airport and Prisons to Pasir Ris-Changi GRC.
The WP is highly likely to return to both these constituencies.
The take: The PAP’s East Coast team is stacked with political office-holders, which it has traditionally leaned on to front GRCs.
DPM Heng Swee Keat is the anchor minister there. With him is Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office Maliki Osman. Now, there is also Minister for Culture, Community and Youth Edwin Tong - who we understand was quite the vote-getter in his Joo Chiat ward.
It’s unlikely that all three ministers will stay. We should expect some movement(s) or retirement(s), as the PAP usually renews about a third of its MPs every election.
This means Dr Tan See Leng looks likely to anchor Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRC alone. But his campaign will be bolstered by veteran MacPherson MP Tin Pei Ling, whose vote share in GE2020 went up, even as the PAP’s national vote share fell.
Unlike boundary changes in the west, the east-side revisions do not appear as game-changing for the opposition.
The WP has been consistently walking the ground there. Based on our estimates, they would likely have covered many areas affected by the changes.
One thing to watch are the changes to its 2020 line-up.
Its East Coast team has lost Nicole Seah and Terence Tan, who have both left the party. Two others likely to return – Abdul Shariff Aboo Kassim and Kenneth Foo – have picked up a new face in lawyer Ang Boon Yaw.
Speculation is rife that Leader of the Opposition Pritam Singh could leave the safety of Aljunied to lead the MPBH or East Coast teams, in order to prove himself to party members and voters after the recent court case.
Second Reading:
MOH’s deputy secretary (policy) Jasmin Lau has retired from the civil service at age 42. She could be one of the biggest fish the PAP has caught so far – her CV screams potential office-holder – and one of the first of several resignations expected from the public service ahead of the election. The PAP has traditionally tapped high-flying public service leaders as candidates. We’re hearing murmurs on the ground of more to come and will be working to bring you the latest.
Three PAP new faces have been redeployed to different constituencies. This is normal ahead of the actual hustings, as the party’s leadership assesses them for their fit with the existing MPs and how well they gel with the constituency’s residents. It’s also possible they are giving the opposition (and us) a wild goose to chase.
Two women caused a commotion outside Law and Home Affairs Minister K. Shanmugam’s MPS session on March 12, saying they wanted to discuss Pofma. The incident has sparked discussion on appropriate avenues for advocacy.
Community:
Given the (very) long issue, we will just leave this section with photos of our pets. They have been very sad this week as we have been so tied up with work.
What did you think of the EBRC report? E-mail us at unpacked@sph.com.sg.
