Will we vote on May 3?
Also, a tariffed election, and PAP official introductions begin
Hi everyone,
If our bets – and sources – are correct, Polling Day is less than a month away. By the next issue, we will have a good picture of who’s standing where.
Over the past few weeks, US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have caused dramatic shifts in the global environment. The possibility of a full-blown trade war now forms the backdrop to this election.
Senior PAP leaders have emphasised the danger, but stopped short of framing this as a reason to vote the party back into power. The bigger challenge, said PM Lawrence Wong, is not the contest between political parties, but Singapore versus the world.
The opposition response has been varied. The WP has called for unity while prodding the Government to do more. The PSP first called the Government’s response “overblown”, then walked back its position.
Uncertainty over the tariffs will feature strongly in the hustings, which may kick off in the last few weeks of April.
This week we look at possible polling days, PAP introducing its slate, and opposition negotiations (failed and successful):
Tell your bookies May 3 or May 9
The news: All signs point to a May election.
PM Wong kicked things off on Saturday, officially introducing the PAP slate for Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC where he is anchor minister.
Everyone else is taking cues from the ruling party, which has ramped up its activity in the last week or so.
We can expect their manifesto this week, and more introductions of constituency line-ups.
The take: Our top picks for Polling Day are May 3 or May 9.
The PAP is unlikely to let May Day fall after the polls, as the May Day Rally is one of the biggest political speeches of the year. This rules out the end of April.
The end of the month is also a no-go – Singapore will host the Shangri-La dialogue from May 30 to June 1.
With the uncertainty around tariffs, the PAP is likely to prefer an earlier date. Our best guess – and chatter on the ground – is May 3.
Working backwards, this pretty much settles the timeline over the next few weeks.
A May 3 polling day points to Nomination Day on April 23, as there are typically nine days of campaigning and a day set aside for Cooling-Off Day before the ballot.
This is preceded by the Writ of Election and dissolution of Parliament usually a week before. This could be as early as tomorrow or the day after.
Locked in and ready
The news: Over 30 new PAP candidates will stand in the upcoming polls – the party’s largest slate of new faces in recent history.
The party’s slate has been finalised and it will introduce candidates by constituency.
This is similar to 2015, and unlike the 2020 format where new faces were introduced in batches over three days.
Marsiling-Yew Tee’s candidates – anchored by PM Wong – went first on Saturday. They were followed by the opposition-ward slates in Hougang, Aljunied and Sengkang on Sunday.
The take: This is a huge change of about a third of the PAP’s candidates from GE 2020.
First off, this means some sitting MPs will have to retire.
Very few so far have telegraphed that they will step away (the most obvious is Sembawang’s Lim Wee Kiak, but he has also not confirmed he will leave), so we are looking at a wave of resignations very soon. This could include some who have not served the usual three-term tour that many PAP backbenchers take, and possibly some ministers.
This video released by PM Wong, which features several (young) new faces, seems to indicate that the party is serious about renewal.
After the delayed and prolonged (partially due to Covid-19) 4G transition, it looks like the party is wasting no time getting in new blood to start cultivating its still-nascent 5G.
Negotiations going south
The news: Coordination between the many opposition parties to avoid three-cornered fights has been patchy so far. It appears that a consensus may not be reached in every constituency before the polls.
Red Dot United has withdrawn from The Coalition – set up in 2023 to avoid multi-party contests – after a fellow coalition member, the National Solidarity Party, refused to step away from Sembawang GRC.
Ang Mo Kio is also heading for a three-party fight, after the Singapore United Party and PPP failed to reach a deal.
But some others have managed to sort things out.
The PPP stepped aside to let RDU contest in Nee Soon. It also looks like the SDP is backing away from Holland-Bukit Timah GRC, where RDU has introduced a slate.
The take: Opposition parties have usually sat down together by now, to work out which party will contest where. Traditionally, only the WP does not participate.
A record 12 opposition parties took part in GE 2020, but with coordination they collectively managed to only have two three-cornered fights (one of which was caused by a surprise independent candidate in Pioneer SMC).
With the WP expanding in the East and RDU coming out big this year, it seems space has shrunk and consensus has been harder to come by.
The PAR’s Michael Fang has invited all opposition parties to a meeting on April 19, to iron out potential multi-cornered fights. We’ll see what comes of it.
Two potential opposition candidates have jumped ship close to the hustings. Former PSP candidate Gigene Wong, who was walking the ground in Marymount with PSP’s Hazel Poa early this year, was introduced as part of the SDP’s Marsiling-Yew Tee slate on Sunday. And Fazli Talip, who was with the Singapore People’s Party in December, will be part of RDU’s slate for Holland-Bukit Timah.
The WP has put out a call for volunteers, featuring a number of new faces. We don’t know how many of them will run, but some, like Sandy Ng, who works at a private bank, and Linda Low, who is semi-retired, are familiar faces who have been named for the first time.
Thanks for sending in questions! This week we’ll look at: Why is there no news on the Reform Party? Will they be contesting in the next GE?
The short answer is: We don’t know yet, but seeing how late it is, it looks unlikely that the party will be on any ballot on its own.
Nominally, the party is part of an opposition alliance – the People’s Alliance for Reform, led by Peoples Voice’s Lim Tean.
Founded in 2008, the party leapt into the national spotlight at GE2020 with several notable television appearances by secretary-general Kenneth Jeyaretnam and former chairman Charles Yeo.
Since then, both have left Singapore, with legal and health troubles making their return unlikely.
Yeo is a fugitive after being accused of criminal breach of trust and forgery. He has been in the UK where he is claiming asylum, but Singapore’s authorities have recently moved to extradite him.
Jeyaretnam is also in the UK but continues to write on Singapore politics. He was previously reported to be under police investigation for contempt of court related to his repeated Pofmas, but had said then that he was too ill to fly back to speak to the authorities.
Given that the pair have not publicly handed over leadership to anybody in Singapore, it looks unlikely the yellow sun will be on any ballots come GE.
I believe it's more 3 May than 9